EU10 recovery is set to speed up
The pace of the recovery in the EU10 is set to accelerate in 2011 and 2012, but it also differs across the EU10 countries.
The performance of Slovakia and Poland is set to remain solid thanks to low pre-crisis imbalances, deep integration into European production networks, EU funds, and, in the case of Poland, solid consumption. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are likely to build on the export-led upswing as domestic demand continues to recover. Romania and Bulgaria, where the crisis hit later than elsewhere, are set to see the biggest improvements in growth in 2011, aside from Latvia and Lithuania. Growth in Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary is set to increase at a more measured pace, in part because these countries have already converged more to EU income levels.
“The strong rebound in global trade benefited exports in the EU10, which recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010,” said Kaspar Richter, Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region and lead author of the report. “However, growth prospects are subject to risks related to the feeble private investments, winding down of construction projects, and tight international financial constraints,” added Richter.
“Romania is expected to lead the recovery in 2012 compared to the other EU10 countries, with a projected GDP growth of 4.4,” said Ctlin Puna, Senior Economist and co-author of the report.
The performance of Slovakia and Poland is set to remain solid thanks to low pre-crisis imbalances, deep integration into European production networks, EU funds, and, in the case of Poland, solid consumption. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are likely to build on the export-led upswing as domestic demand continues to recover. Romania and Bulgaria, where the crisis hit later than elsewhere, are set to see the biggest improvements in growth in 2011, aside from Latvia and Lithuania. Growth in Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary is set to increase at a more measured pace, in part because these countries have already converged more to EU income levels.
“The strong rebound in global trade benefited exports in the EU10, which recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010,” said Kaspar Richter, Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region and lead author of the report. “However, growth prospects are subject to risks related to the feeble private investments, winding down of construction projects, and tight international financial constraints,” added Richter.
“Romania is expected to lead the recovery in 2012 compared to the other EU10 countries, with a projected GDP growth of 4.4,” said Ctlin Puna, Senior Economist and co-author of the report.
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